Projections: Exits from Foster Care to Permanency
Where Will Your State Be in 3, 5, or 10 Years?
Examining projections allows policymakers to see where the current course will take the state if existing factors, influences, and strategies continue. Policymakers can then decide if these outcomes are what they and their constituents want to achieve for building strong and stable families by helping children leave foster care in a timely manner.
Questions to Consider
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Is this future OK? If there are no changes, is this the direction you want to head? Are the anticipated conditions acceptable?
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What are the costs associated with this projection? If there is improvement in this indicator, and children spend fewer days in foster care, how much money will be saved and how can it be reinvested? If there is not improvement, how will state and local budgets be impacted?
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Do children who reunify with their families re-enter care at a later time? Do adoption or guardianship placements disrupt? How do these factors impact future projections?
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What are the characteristics – including age and race -- of the children who are still in foster care? How do these characteristics impact future projections for increasing timeliness to reunification, adoption and foster care?
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If the current trend continues, what are the implications for service needs in the community for families who reunify, or those who are adopted or in guardianship?
What You Need to Know
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Timeliness to reunification, adoption and guardianship are dynamic indicators.
Simply reviewing the indicator itself does not tell you everything you need to know. A positive trend line is only good if family stability has been achieved for those children who are reunified, adopted or in guardianship. Similarly, a downward trend on the indicator does not necessarily signal failure. Child welfare agencies need to find the right balance between safety, family stability, and permanence to know they are on the right course.
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The impact of courts and other agencies.
Courts and other agencies have enormous influence over whether or not children can find a permanent family in a timely manner, which in turn influences the extent to which child welfare agencies can impact current and future trends.